Election 2024 live updates: Some Ministers could be in trouble, while tallies show Gerry Hutch in contention for Dáil seat

Counting is ongoing around the country with tallies being reported across all 43 constituencies. The largest parties appear on course for a tight finish in their share of the vote in general election 2024, according to the results of an exit poll last night.
Stay with us throughout the day for all the latest from the count centres along with reaction, analysis and opinion from our reporters and writers.
Ireland First leader Derek Blighe, who is running in Cork North Central, expects Independent Ireland’s Ken O’Flynn to be the main beneficiary when he is eliminated from the poll after polling, according to tallies, approximately 4 per cent of first preferences
“I’m happy with how I’m doing so far – I canvassed all over, I did Mallow, I did the northside of the city, Glanmire, Watergrasshill, Glenville, Carrignavar, Whitechurch – I’m only just in but I got a decent amount of support in Mallow and a decent amount of support on the Northside.
“The way it’s looking at the moment, I’m not going to make it – I would imagine a lot of votes will go to Ken O’Flynn, some might go to Sinn Fein – after that, I don’t know,” Blighe told The Irish Times at the Nemo Rangers Count Centre in Cork.
Pat Leahy has a moment in time assessment of the state of play.
In the four-seat Cork East constituency with 25 per cent of the boxes open Fianna Fáil’s Deirdre O’Brien is the early front runner on 13.6 per. cent followed closely by Sinn Féin’s Pat Buckley and independent Mary Linehan Foley both on 11 per cent, writes David Forsythe.
Also in the mix are Noel McCarthy (FG) and James O’Connor (FF) both on 10 per cent of the vote. Independent Willie O’Leary, Social Democrats Liam Quade and Mark Stanton of Fine Gael are all on 9 per cent.
With more than a third of boxes open at the Waterford Count, it is clear five candidates are in a battle for four seats, with Sinn Fein led by David Cullinane topping the poll by a decisive margin – and Green Party outgoing TD Marc O Cathasigh unlikely to retain his seat, reports Kevin O’Sullivan.
The tallies indicate that if Sinn Fein transfers strongly with Cullinane, based in Waterford City having a big surplus, Cllr Conor McGuinness based in Dungarvan could take a second seat for the party. He is also polling strongly in western parts of the constituency.
By mid-morning, Cullinane has 28 per cent of the vote with Sinn Fein at 36 per cent, while outgoing Fianna Fail TD Mary Butler had 17 per cent of the vote and is likely to be re-elected. With 18 per cent of the vote, Senator John Cummins is expected to win back a Fine Gael seat lost in 2020.
Its expected outgoing independent TD Matt Shanahan (10.7 per cent) will be in a battle with McGuinness for the final seat. Labour’s Sadhbh O’Neill was at 2.8 per cent and Mary Roche of the Social Democrats at 6 per cent.
The sorting of votes is now well underway in Mallow GAA ground where ballots from the three Cork county constituencies are being counted, writes Liz Dunphy
Fianna Fáil TD Aindrias Moynihan said that initial tallies show “a lot of uncertainty” regarding the retention of his seat.
“It’s all up in the air. It’s really scary at this stage, just watching those boxes being opened,” he said.
“I’ve seen a few snapshots and it’s really tight at this stage.”
“Everything” for him is riding on winning a seat, he said.
The three constituencies being counted in Mallow are the four seat constituency of Cork East and the three seat constituencies of Cork North West and Cork South West.
As expected, with roughly two thirds of boxes tallied in Galway East, outgoing independent TD Seán Canney looks set to comfortably retain his seat having so far accumulated 25 per cent of first preference votes. writes Cian O’Connell.
Minister of State Anne Rabbitte (7 per cent) is facing a battle, with fellow Fianna Fáil candidate Albert Dolan (15 per cent) in a strong position. Mr Dolan looks likely to take the second of four seats in the constituency.
Fine Gael’s Pete Roche (10 per cent) is currently outperforming his party’s other candidates Niamh Madden (5.5 per cent) and Clodagh Higgins (5.7 per cent). It is still early days, but Mr Roche should benefit from transfers down the line to claim a seat.
Sinn Féin’s Louis O’Hara (13 per cent), who narrowly missed out on a shock win in 2020, has started positively. A strong showing in Tuam augurs well for the Athenry native, though he may struggle to compete with rival candidates on transfers. Votes from Athenry are among those yet to be counted, where Mr O’Hara will be hoping for another boost.
We have some updated tallies in. First up is Martin Wall.
The chairman of the Fine Gael parliamentary party Alan Farrell is in a battle to retain his seat in the new constituency of Fingal East.
Tally figures suggest that Farrell is slightly behind Ann Graves of Sinn Féin.
With all boxes open in Fingal East, tally figures suggested that Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien is set to top and poll.
Tally figures indicate that O’Brien has received about 23 per cent of the first preference votes.
According to the tally figures Farrell is running about 65 votes behind Graves who narrowly lost out on a seat in the local elections earlier this year.
Just slightly ahead is out-going TD Duncan Smith of the Labour Party.
Tally figures suggest that Graves is on 14.6 per cent, Smith on 14.5 per cent and Farrell on 14.4 per cent.
Mick Wallace, who entered the race late on, looks to be out of the running in Wexford.
Outgoing Minister for Justice Helen McEntee is topping the polls in the Meath East constituency, according to early tallies.
Shauna Bowers reports that a total of 25 of 127 boxes have been tallied to date, meaning there are health warnings attached to the indications.
McEntee, Fianna Fáil’s Thomas Byrne and Sinn Féin’s Darren O’Rourke are the incumbents in the constituency. The boxes opened to date would geographically favour Ms McEntee and Mr Byrne.
As it stands, McEntee has 21 per cent of votes, followed by Byrne at 13 per cent, and O’Rourke close by at 12 per cent. The Sinn Féin candidate was the first elected in the area in the 2020 election.
The constituency has seen the number of seats it holds upgraded to four from three, with a number of candidates currently neck and neck to claim the final seat.
Both Sinn Féin’s Maria White and Fine Gael’s Sharon Tolan currently stand at 9 per cent, while Fianna Fáil’s Caroline O’Reilly is at 7 per cent. Aontú’s Emer Tóibín, the sister of party leader Peadar Tóibín, is at 6 per cent.
In total, Fine Gael currently has 29 per cent of votes, followed by Sinn Féin at 22 per cent and Fianna Fáil at 19 per cent.
Gino Kenny of People Before Profit looks set for a rollercoaster battle to keep his seat in Dublin Mid West, writes Kitty Holland.
With almost all 126 boxes tallied in this five-seat constituency, Sinn Féin’s two TDs here, Eoin Ó Broin and Mark Ward, are powering ahead on 21.4 per cent and 12.6 per cent respectively. Fine Gael’s Emer Higgins is close behind on 9.5 per cent, with Fianna Fáil’s Shane Moynihan on 9.1 per cent.
It looks like a battle royale for the fifth seat, between Francis Timmons (Labour) on 5.2 per cent; Eoin Ó Broin (Social Democrats) 6.1 per cent; Gino Kenny on 5.6 per cent and Paul Gogarty (Independent) 6.9 per cent.
It appears Kenny’s vote has been squeezed by both the Social Democrats and his neighbour in Clondalkin Glen Moore, running for the Irish Freedom Party, who is on 3.3 per cent.
And we have more in from Dublin West where Roderic O’Gorman is in trouble, reports Sorcha Pollak.
Fianna Fáil’s Jack Chambers and Sinn Féin’s Paul Donnelly were leading the charge by 11am with 58 per cent of boxes open.
Fianna Fáil deputy leader Jack Chambers is currently at 21 per cent, followed by Mr Donnelly at 19 per cent.
Fine Gael Senator Emer Currie is at 13 per cent, PBP-Solidarity’s Ruth Coppinger is at 8 per cent with Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman and Labour’s John Walsh Green Party both holding 6 per cent.
With a population of 138,547, Dublin West is one of the fastest growing constituencies in the country and has five seats up for grabs in this general election.
All the boxes in Dublin Central have now been opened.
The tally figures have Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald at 20 per cent, Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe at 17 per cent, Social Democrats Gary Gannon at 13 per cent, Independent Gerard Hutch at 9 per cent, Labour’s Marie Sherlock at 7 per cent, Fianna Fáil’s Mary Fitzpatrick at 7 per cent, Green’s Neasa Hourigan at 6 per cent and Independent Malachy Steenson at 5 per cent. Janice Boylan (SF) and Clare Daly (Ind) and Eoghan Ó Ceannabhain (PBP) all at 4 per cent
Sinn Féin is on track for 40-plus seats, Martin Kenny has told Arthur Beesley in Sligo
The TD pointed to a “little swing” in the last two days of the campaign which could see the party increasing its Dáil presence from 37.
Mr Kenny is on course for a smooth re-election in Sligo-Leitrim, with running mate Chris MacManus in the hunt for a second party seat.
“We felt a little swing in the last couple of days. We could feel it coming along. Certainly in the last week the difference was there. We could see it building,” he said in the count centre after tallying Sligo boxes.
“We’re going to get probably over the 40 seats nationally – and how many over that, it could be down to transfers for the last seat in a lot of the constituencies. So we’re happy enough from that perspective from what we were last June in a poor enough local election.”
The chairman of the Fine Gael parliamentary party Alan Farrell is facing a battle to retain his seat in Fingal East, writes Martin Wall.
With more 80 per cent of boxes now open, tally figures suggest he is neck and neck with Ann Graves of Sinn Féin. Each have just more than 14 per cent.
Fianna Fáil’s Darragh O’Brien seems set to top the poll.
Former Sinn Féin TD Brian Stanley, who controversially left the party in October, is polling strongly across the county according to early tallies, as he bids to regain a seat as an Independent. Early indications are that Willie Aird (FG) and Minister of State Seán Fleming (FF) are also performing well.
Elaine Mullally (Ind), Maria McCormack (SF) and former FG councillor Aisling Moran (Ind) are also pulling in votes from across the three-seat constituency.
Minister of State Ossian Smyth facing a battle to retain his seat in Dún Laoghaire with the Green Party candidate on just over 7.5 per cent, reports Emmet Malone.
Fine Gael on about 34 per cent combined with party sources saying Blackrock and Wyvern boxes currently being opened having the potential to boost that slightly.
Jennifer O’Caroll MacNeill currently on course to be elected on first count and they feel if Ward can add a percentage point or two to his 12.7 per cent he would be in a. good position to take the fourth seat.
The Taoiseach Simon Harris is on course to top the poll in Wicklow while Fianna Fáil Minister for Health is facing a battle to retain his seat, writes Carl O’Brien.
Based on just over a quarter of boxes tallied, Mr Harris is in first place (28 per cent), followed by Sinn Féin’s John Brady (15 per cent) and Social Democrats’ Jennifer Whitmore in third (14 per cent).
There looks to be a battle for the final seat in the four-seater constituency between Fine Gael’s Edward Timmins in fourth (6.8 per cent) and Fianna Fáil’s Stephen Donnelly (6.6 per cent) in fifth.
Joe Behan (Ind) is further behind (4 per cent), followed by sitting Green Party TD Steven Matthews (3.6 per cent), who looks set to lose his seat on what looks like a miserable day for party.
Former Fine Gael minister and retiring TD Richard Bruton has expressed his disappointment with media coverage of the election campaign, writes Marie O’Halloran.
“I think the headline in one of the newspapers saying Fine Gael was in free fall was a little bit inaccurate to say the least,” he said.
The outgoing Dublin Bay North TD said what he saw was “the blowing up of very small errors to dominate the campaign.
And whether that is fair or reflective of the issues, I have my doubts.”
Mr Bruton said “I think traditional media sort of followed the social media line of the sensational over the substance.
“That’s what I felt disappointing about the election- the media coverage was just instantaneous click bait coverage.”
On the outcome in Dublin Bay North Mr Bruton said it was still early days but it looked like a seat for Fine Gael, Social Democrats, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin with a fight for the fifth seat.
He said Denise Smith’s party colleague Cllr Micheál MacDonncha is contention for a second Sinn Féin seat.
He is in a battle with Independent Barry Heneghan for the last seat while Labour faces a difficulty in holding on to the seat formerly held by MEP Aodhán Ó Riordáin with Independent John Lyons “not doing as well as people might have hoped for him”.
At 9am the Limerick count centre was told that the city count would go ahead despite candidates not appearing in alphabetical order on the ballot paper, writes David Raleigh. As it currently stands, 29 of 137 boxes have been tallied & is showing that three outgoing TDs Willie O’Dea, (FF) is on 20 per cent Kieran O’Donnell (FG) is on 14 per cent and Maurice Quinlivan (SF) is on 12 per cent. On the face of it outgoing Green TD Brian Leddin is struggling on 5 per cent.
We have another ring found, this time in Donegal.
It was found in this voting box at Scoil Íosagáin in Moville in Inishowen in the Donegal constituency. Local county councillor Ali Farren of the 100% Redress Party managed to find the owner and a happy reunion was made.
With 87 per cent of boxes open in Fingal West, tally figures suggest Green Party Minister of State Joe O’Brien is struggling to retain his seat. Tallies indicate he is on 6.5 per cent in the three-seat constituency.
Is Gerard Hutch in with a shout of a seat?
With three quarters of the boxes in Dublin Central open, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is at 21 per cent, reports Sarah Burns.
She is followed by Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe at 13 per cent. Independent Gerard Hutch and Social Democrats Gary Gannon are both at 12 per cent.
Oh and we have our first wedding ring. It was found in a ballot box in Athlone.
With nearly two thirds of boxes tallied in Fingal West, Robert O’Donoghue of the Labour Party seems well in the hunt for a seat, writes Martin Wall.
Louise O’Reilly of Sinn Féin is leading on 23.1 per cent of tallies, with O’Donoghue on 18.2 per cent.
Grace Boland of Fine Gael is on 15.1 per cent and Lorraine Clifford Lee of Fianna Fáil on 12.4 per cent
There are three seats in the new Fingal West constituency.
It is very early days but Roderic O’Gorman, the Green Party leader might be in trouble in Dublin West – or at the very least he will be in a fight for the last seat.
Fianna Fáil’s Stephen Donnelly, the outgoing Minister for Health might also be in a dogfight in Wicklow.
A pretty bleak, early assessment from a Green Party stalwart.
As part of the exit poll, people were also asked about what they mainly used to help them form their opinion before voting, reports Cormac McQuinn.
Twenty-five per cent of respondents said it was TV programmes while the next highest figure, 13 per cent said social media or online messaging.
Eleven per cent said online news sites like irishtimes.com, rte.ie or thejournal.ie while another 11 per cent said national radio and a further 11 per cent said local radio.
National printed newspapers stood at 4 per cent and local newspapers were on 2 per cent.
Podcasts were also on 2 per cent while 18 per cent of respondents said “something else” helped them to form their opinion before voting.
According to the exit poll social media was the main form of media helping form the opinions of 18 to 24-year-old voters with 37 per cent of respondents in the age category reporting this.
This compares to just 2 per cent among the over 65s and 6 per cent in the 50 to 64 age categories for whom TV programmes were the main response to this question.
The poll, which is a joint project of The Irish Times, RTÉ, TG4 and the Political Science Department of Trinity College Dublin, was conducted by Ipsos B&A among 5018 voters as they left 253 polling stations across all 43 constituencies yesterday.
Meanwhile, voters were also asked about the trustworthiness of politicians, writes Corman McQuinn.
A total of 53 per cent said their view is most politicians are trustworthy.
More men (56 per cent) than women (51 per cent) were of this opinion.
Forty-five per cent of the respondents said most politicians are untrustworthy.
The highest level of trust in politicians was to be found among Green Party supporters with 78 per cent of these saying most politicians are trustworthy. The same answer was given by 73 per cent of Fine Gael voters and 66 per cent of Fianna Fáil supporters.
In terms of those who expressed the view that most politicians are untrustworthy, 68 per cent of Aontú voters responded in this way as did 67 per cent of Sinn Féin supporters.
More than half of voters, 53 per cent, made up their minds on who they would cast their ballot for in during the election campaign, according to the exit poll.
The decision of almost a third came n the last couple of days or on polling day itself.
The results demonstrate the importance of the campaign period in Irish elections with many voters yet to make their final decision in the weeks leading up to polling day.
The results mirror the 2020 exit poll when 52 per cent of people made up their minds over the course of the campaign.
Gavin Jennings on Morning Ireland has just asked if we “are having a Bobby Ewing in the shower moment”?
It’s a fair question for sure give the exit poll and the likely outcome of the election but there won’t be many people under the age of 50 who have any idea what he is talking about.
Potentially very interesting story coming out of Dublin West, writes Sorcha Pollak.
With 12 per cent of the boxes open FF’s Jack Chambers and SF’s Paul Donnelly are steaming ahead.
Chambers is on 22 per cent and Donnelly is on 21 per cent. FG Senator Emer Currie is on 12 per cent, PBP-Solidarity’s Ruth Coppinger is on 9 per cent and Independent candidate Tania Doyle is coming in fifth position at 7 per cent. Leader of the Green Party Roderic O’Gorman is trailing in eighth position with 4 per cent.
But – and we can’t stress this enough – it is early days so all the health warnings apply.
The early story of Dublin Central in two tweets from Jennifer Bray.
A fresh update from Dublin Bay South, this time from Marie O’Halloran.
Tallies predicting in Dublin Bay South that James Geoghegan will top the poll with Labour’s Ivana Bacik in second.
Jim O’Callaghan of Fianna Fáil in third with transfers of Social Democrats Cllr Eoin Hayes determining the fourth seat. He is transferring to Ms Bacik and the Greens’s Cllr Hazel Chu.
Labour tallyman Kevin Humphreys predicts a tight contest between Sinn Féin’s Chris Andrews and Ms Chu but that Sinn Féin should hold on.
It could be that Fine Gael’s Emma Blaine will lose out.
Considerable disquiet in Galway West that tally people were not allowed in before the boxes were opened at 9am, writes John Fallon.
Former FF Minister Frank Fahey said it’s the first time he has experienced that and fears that it might impact on tally figures.
News from Dublin Bay South – two seats for FF looking unlikely although the usual health warnings apply.
Former Social Democrats leader Róisín Shortall said the party is “certainly very encouraged by the 5.8 per cent” in Friday’s exit poll, writes Marie O’Halloran.
“It’s really good and it’s almost double what we had in the last election,” she said.
Arriving at the RDS, Ms Shortall said “if that holds up in terms of the actual votes today, we would be very happy and we should certainly make gains”.
She declined to put an estimate on those gains. “It’s just there’s so many variables in constituencies. It’s just very hard to predict but we’re very happy with that kind of starting point. almost 6 per cent.
It’s great.”
News (very, very early news) in from Dublin Central.
The political parties, Independents and others are attempting to co-operate on the tallies at the RDS for Dublin counts,” writes Marie O’Halloran.
Not the easiest thing in the world however as “everyone has different views on how to do it” says one tally man. The efforts follow hit and miss tallies in the local elections.
The ballot boxes are now being opened at the counting has started.
We should start getting first round results in the early afternoon.
Peadar Tóibín of Aontú was very upbeat and said his party could get up to 4 per cent and might be contention for as many as four seats.
“We’re growing and we’ve passed out People Before Profit, Independent Ireland and if the votes go the way I think they’re going we may even pass out the Green Party.”
He said a key “objective was State funding. We’ve done all of this growth without State funding and it looks like we’re going to reach the threshold for State funding ”
Richard Boyd Barrett of People Before Profit has also been on radio and he pointed to the “historic decline” of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
He said there combined vote would be around 40 per cent, down 3 per cent on 20 years ago.
He suggested that two years ago there was “a big momentum behind the idea of a left of centre alternative … and then it faltered.”
Fianna Fáil’s director of elections Jack Chambers has said the election is “too close to call”.
Speaking on RTE’s Morning Ireland he denied that there was no difference between his party and Fine Gael and as a result little alternative for voters
“We ran different campaigns with different priorities and very much a different platform.”
He said the “real story” was the Sinn Féin vote. ‘ A year or two they were in the mid 30s they’re now back around 20 per cent.”
The Green Party’s director of elections Pauline O’Reilly has said that while she doesn’t want to “count chickens before they’ve hatched” she believes the party will be returning to the Dáil with some seats.
“It’s only a question now of how many,” she told Morning Ireland. “We benefit from preferences down the line and across the board [and] it’s the preferences down the line that are going to determine this.”
Housing and homelessness was the most important issue for 28 per cent of people when deciding how to vote followed by the cost of living on 19 per cent and health on 17 per cent.
According to the exit poll, economic stability was on 9 per cent), climate change on 4 per cent and, crime, local transport and roads and childcare all on 2 per cent, writes Pat Leahy
Immigration – which had been prominent in the list of issues of public concern for much of the year – played a minor role, nominated by just 6 per cent.
The housing issue was more prominent among younger voters with 42 per cent of those under 34 nominating it as the most important issue.
We have an update on the exit poll from our Political Editor Pat Leahy that points to what voters may want to happen next.
Almost half of voters in yesterday’s general election favour a coalition government based on the combination of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, according to the Irish Times/RTÉ/TG4/TCD exit poll.
Nearly a third of voters (31 per cent) said they would prefer a coalition of just Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil; a further 9 per cent preferred a government of those two parties plus independents; while a further 9 per cent said they would like to see a government of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and one or more smaller parties.
Combined, this is a total of 49 per cent of voters in the exit poll who want to see a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil-led government.
The next most popular choice is a government led by Sinn Féin without Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil, which was chosen by 22 per cent. Another 7 per cent said they wanted to see a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin coalition (including just 9 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters), while 21 per cent said they wanted to see “something else”.
The most popular choice for Taoiseach is the Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, who was the preferred choice of 35 per cent. He pips the Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, who is on 34 per cent, while the Fine Gael leader Simon Harris is on 27 per cent. Just 5 per cent gave no response.
So, how is the day and the weekend going to pan out?
The ballot boxes will be opened at the count centres around the country at 9am after which the ballot papers will be sifted and sorted.
By 11am some decent tallies will start coming in that should give us an even better sense of where things are going than the exit polls did.
By mid to late afternoon we will have the first seats filled and the counting will continue across the country late into the night.
It will start all over again on Sunday morning and by midnight tomorrow we should be done.
The people have spoken, now we just have to figure out what they said, as the old saying has it.
The exit poll we published last night put the three main parties clustered at around 20 per cent and – based on those figures – it looks like the next Government will be made up of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and others.
But as keen election watchers will well know a lot can change as the votes are counted and the seats get filled.
So, we’ll start – unusually, perhaps – by quoting a Letter to the Editor published this morning from Paul Delaney in Delgany.
“It’s all over bar the counting: the excuses, the recriminations, the finger-pointing, and the inevitable lengthy political horse-trading that takes place before the establishment of a coalition government. The people have spoken; but it’s going to take quite a while to figure out what exactly they said. ”